Written by Nasser Kandil,
The state of non-war and non-understanding which surrounds the American-Iranian relationships assures that Washington does not have a roadmap for the post-withdrawal of the nuclear understanding stage, but only to bet on besieging Iran economically and thus internally in a way that obliges it to stop its nuclear and missile program and to stop its support of the resistance movements due to the priority of the needs of the Iranian community. Therefore, a new forces balance will emerge and will impose on Tehran the acceptance of the American conditions of negotiation related to its regional role, nuclear program, and its missile capacity and thus new understandings.
There are many American and European studies centers that assure that the American bet will face a stalemate, because Iran is self-sufficient agriculturally and industrially in all essential consumer goods of its citizens with local raw materials and local labor. So the oil does not constitute more than 20% of the Iranian local production. The international reports say that Iran has land borders of thousands kilometers with seven countries and water borders with more than ten countries most of which share with it mutual trade relationships that are not subject to the banking systems controlled by Washington. Therefore, such a country cannot be besieged. In the eighties during the war with Iraq it remained trading in its oil when the siege was on it militarily not only financially.
Other reports talk about the necessary time needed for the readiness of both the American and Iranian plans, they concluded that Iran’s plan which the withdrawal from the nuclear program forms one of its items and which means the return to the high enrichment of uranium and storing the enriched quantities will mean that Iran will reach to the moment of possessing what is enough to produce a nuclear bomb within three to six months. It is a period that will startfrom the beginning of July with the end of the 60-days deadline announced by Iran in early May. Therefore, Iran prepared itself to bear the sanctions after the American presidential elections in next fall. While Washington’s plan to suffocate Iran will need years to be fulfilled at the time when Iran will possess what is enough to produce the first nuclear bomb where Washington can do nothing. What is going on the Saudi-Yemeni front is an example of the escalating track of the Gulf situation under the US presence which Washington has promised to ignite in order to make Iran pay the cost of any targeting of its allies by Tehran’s allies.
Some reports asked what if Washington succeeded in besieging Iran and weakening it. They reached to a conclusion that such bottleneck will not be in favor of Washington and its allies, because what would happen will be contrary to the US virtual expectations. The first results will be the weakness of Iran and its allies in Syria and Iraq against ISIS which has dormant cells and which are enough to possess a base in order to expand in the desert between Syria and Iraq and in order to resume the attacks in the western countries. The second result will be a clash between the boats of the Revolutionary Guard and the American ships, and the escalation between Saudi Arabia, and Yemen and between the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza and Israel. During this tense situation, Washington has to choose between either to go a step forward towards a war or to retreat.
Washington is stuck in between, because it puts the interests of Israel and getting guarantees for its security above the American interests. The ongoing mediators to the American senior officials would not have been if America was reassured to its situation.
Translated by LinaShehadeh